* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952019 07/28/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 33 36 40 44 48 51 54 55 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 33 36 40 44 41 42 44 46 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 39 41 37 37 37 38 39 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 2 8 8 11 18 19 19 21 16 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 6 3 0 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 83 118 312 325 352 276 287 276 287 287 307 306 298 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.6 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 141 143 142 141 139 143 161 151 155 158 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 137 139 138 134 131 134 149 139 142 147 155 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 61 59 61 59 63 62 65 61 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 50 45 32 36 42 34 58 31 30 19 34 20 200 MB DIV 16 39 41 1 32 28 10 22 13 13 -5 -2 9 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -3 -1 9 4 6 2 -3 -4 -15 -2 LAND (KM) 233 300 362 391 314 217 104 -21 17 57 63 78 138 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.1 16.2 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.1 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 63.9 64.6 65.5 66.4 68.0 69.7 71.3 72.8 74.3 75.9 77.3 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 9 9 9 7 8 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 48 39 33 30 31 43 38 31 55 42 48 61 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 23. 26. 29. 30. 34. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 63.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952019 INVEST 07/28/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 25.1% 16.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 11.8% 38.7% 24.2% 7.5% 3.9% 20.2% 20.8% 31.3% Bayesian: 4.1% 37.9% 12.7% 0.9% 0.5% 8.7% 9.2% 8.6% Consensus: 7.8% 33.9% 17.8% 6.2% 1.4% 9.6% 15.2% 13.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952019 INVEST 07/28/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952019 INVEST 07/28/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 31 33 36 40 44 41 42 44 46 49 52 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 39 36 37 39 41 44 47 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 31 32 34 36 39 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 23 24 26 28 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT