* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/30/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 46 47 45 40 37 37 35 35 32 27 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 46 47 45 40 37 37 35 35 32 27 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 39 39 41 43 44 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 47 53 62 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 46 48 27 25 20 32 30 15 13 8 15 24 34 24 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -8 0 -3 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 2 0 1 1 8 2 6 SHEAR DIR 301 301 304 300 276 306 338 319 293 286 253 209 188 189 193 231 222 SST (C) 24.4 23.8 23.1 23.2 23.6 24.3 24.3 24.4 23.8 22.6 21.3 19.7 17.3 14.5 12.3 11.5 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 102 98 94 94 95 96 95 97 95 90 84 79 75 74 74 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 87 84 83 82 81 79 82 81 78 75 71 70 71 72 72 69 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 -56.1 -55.8 -56.1 -55.8 -55.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.2 -56.7 -57.0 -56.2 -55.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.0 1.6 1.9 2.4 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 0 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 47 47 48 51 53 59 65 68 67 61 58 57 57 66 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 22 22 23 22 20 19 20 19 19 19 19 16 13 34 850 MB ENV VOR 172 157 158 154 165 165 157 163 176 167 140 102 79 79 73 116 167 200 MB DIV 17 -22 -7 16 27 -5 -1 15 28 43 41 52 71 75 37 56 34 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -12 -11 -2 -2 0 1 1 3 1 -1 -6 -43 -52 69 -1 LAND (KM) 953 1089 1235 1373 1478 1581 1605 1610 1562 1443 1244 1123 1117 1342 1122 477 356 LAT (DEG N) 38.5 37.6 36.7 35.9 35.4 34.9 34.7 34.9 35.8 37.4 39.8 42.1 44.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.7 48.2 46.6 45.1 43.8 42.6 42.5 42.0 41.3 40.9 41.0 40.5 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 13 9 3 1 3 7 10 12 12 17 29 38 39 33 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -24. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -16. -19. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 0. -3. -3. -5. -5. -8. -13. -21. -27. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 38.5 49.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/30/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/30/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/30/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 46 47 45 40 37 37 35 35 32 27 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 44 45 43 38 35 35 33 33 30 25 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 39 40 38 33 30 30 28 28 25 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 33 31 26 23 23 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT