* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/30/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 49 46 39 33 30 28 27 28 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 48 48 49 46 39 33 30 28 27 28 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 47 49 49 48 48 47 47 48 49 49 48 46 43 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 47 47 49 48 21 17 32 31 19 14 10 15 25 37 35 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -9 -7 -9 -7 -4 -7 -4 -3 -2 0 1 -2 -2 -5 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 290 301 296 298 302 280 326 341 321 292 272 271 213 197 202 212 238 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.4 23.9 23.8 23.3 23.7 23.8 24.1 24.0 22.8 21.0 20.0 17.5 15.0 13.1 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 102 99 98 93 93 93 96 97 92 84 80 74 72 72 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 86 88 87 86 81 79 78 81 84 81 76 73 69 68 70 71 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.0 -56.0 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -55.6 -55.8 -56.1 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -56.0 -57.0 -57.6 -57.5 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 1 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 47 44 46 50 53 59 64 68 69 65 54 52 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 22 22 25 23 20 19 18 18 18 19 16 16 13 7 850 MB ENV VOR 168 162 160 148 156 165 181 174 180 182 169 162 121 68 42 61 62 200 MB DIV -28 2 1 -22 -30 4 -3 0 1 38 42 41 59 86 92 60 59 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -12 -7 -11 -3 -5 0 1 3 7 4 0 -10 -24 -44 1 LAND (KM) 736 798 905 1050 1201 1456 1597 1664 1710 1689 1554 1329 1164 1171 1319 1351 679 LAT (DEG N) 40.1 39.7 39.0 38.0 37.0 35.4 34.5 34.0 33.9 34.7 36.7 39.6 42.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.4 50.9 49.5 48.1 46.7 44.3 43.1 42.7 41.9 40.8 40.0 39.9 39.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 14 10 4 3 4 9 13 14 14 14 20 29 35 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -20. -22. -22. -23. -26. -31. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -10. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -20. -21. -23. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 1. -6. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. -23. -28. -36. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.1 52.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/30/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 47.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/30/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/30/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 48 48 49 46 39 33 30 28 27 28 22 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 45 46 43 36 30 27 25 24 25 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 42 39 32 26 23 21 20 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 36 33 26 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT