* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/29/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 43 38 30 22 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 43 38 30 22 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 47 46 45 44 44 44 45 46 46 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 47 49 50 54 30 15 31 33 25 16 12 6 19 34 41 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -10 -11 -10 -11 0 -2 -7 -3 1 0 -1 2 -2 -2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 283 288 298 297 300 298 300 333 328 312 282 277 224 192 191 199 210 SST (C) 23.5 24.5 24.1 24.5 23.6 23.3 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.0 23.2 21.7 20.1 17.1 15.6 13.6 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 95 102 99 103 98 95 93 92 93 96 94 87 81 73 72 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 86 85 90 86 84 80 77 78 82 83 78 73 68 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.3 -55.9 -55.6 -55.6 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -55.7 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 -56.5 -57.6 -57.1 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.6 3.0 2.3 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 4 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 52 54 50 45 46 49 53 57 61 67 71 70 62 57 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 23 21 22 24 21 20 17 17 17 16 14 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 191 164 165 167 156 163 176 171 169 173 163 149 121 81 20 21 35 200 MB DIV -20 -20 -1 7 -11 21 -7 -6 -4 39 44 41 49 81 60 68 43 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -6 -11 -7 -8 -2 0 2 1 3 9 -1 -11 -23 -82 -128 LAND (KM) 701 723 789 909 1074 1374 1569 1631 1664 1672 1578 1369 1165 1116 1232 1508 926 LAT (DEG N) 40.4 40.2 39.7 38.8 37.6 35.7 34.6 34.2 34.0 34.4 36.1 38.9 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.2 52.8 51.5 50.2 48.7 45.6 43.5 43.0 42.7 41.7 40.5 40.1 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 15 16 14 6 2 2 7 13 15 15 14 18 26 32 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. -28. -32. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. -21. -21. -23. -25. -24. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -7. -15. -23. -26. -26. -28. -33. -36. -42. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.4 54.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/29/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 46 44 43 38 30 22 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 42 41 36 28 20 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 38 37 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 31 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT