* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/29/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 48 47 43 41 37 30 25 20 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 48 47 43 41 37 30 25 20 19 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 46 46 47 46 46 47 46 46 47 48 48 45 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 38 46 50 54 54 22 14 32 27 20 17 11 17 31 39 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -10 -10 -10 -10 0 -4 -6 0 0 0 1 -1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 280 279 286 296 299 309 288 299 329 314 287 274 271 203 195 202 229 SST (C) 20.8 22.7 23.8 24.2 24.4 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.9 24.0 23.6 22.6 21.0 19.6 17.3 14.1 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 82 90 97 100 103 96 96 93 92 95 95 91 84 80 75 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 78 82 86 89 86 84 79 77 80 82 80 76 72 70 70 70 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.3 -55.5 -55.9 -55.7 -56.0 -56.3 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 -56.0 -57.0 -57.8 -58.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.7 2.7 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 57 52 54 48 43 48 52 56 61 66 69 68 63 52 48 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 24 22 21 23 21 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR 206 185 161 153 166 167 172 178 177 175 181 166 143 129 55 -9 -94 200 MB DIV 10 -23 -25 -16 -1 -31 -6 7 -20 13 40 46 45 68 92 68 22 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -6 -6 -10 -10 -2 -4 0 1 -1 10 5 2 -5 -44 -30 LAND (KM) 678 668 689 774 903 1242 1516 1634 1653 1667 1618 1434 1160 984 1060 1399 1064 LAT (DEG N) 40.7 40.7 40.5 39.8 38.8 36.4 34.8 34.3 34.2 34.3 35.3 37.5 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 54.2 52.9 51.8 50.5 47.3 44.3 42.7 42.5 42.0 41.1 40.9 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 13 15 17 11 3 1 4 9 14 15 15 18 26 30 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. -31. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -18. -19. -19. -18. -22. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -4. -8. -14. -20. -25. -26. -26. -28. -31. -40. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.7 55.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/29/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 48 48 47 43 41 37 30 25 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 45 41 39 35 28 23 18 17 17 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 36 34 30 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 30 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT