* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/29/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 29 26 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 29 26 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 45 46 45 43 42 43 44 44 45 46 47 47 47 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 32 34 47 57 66 29 19 25 23 17 14 11 12 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -6 -5 -11 -11 -15 4 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 251 264 274 273 285 295 319 322 301 340 331 298 287 254 202 185 213 SST (C) 24.1 20.3 18.1 19.4 21.6 24.0 23.1 23.8 24.0 24.4 24.0 24.0 23.0 21.2 19.9 16.8 15.0 POT. INT. (KT) 100 81 73 75 84 100 96 98 97 98 96 97 92 85 81 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 73 67 68 73 88 87 87 83 83 82 84 81 76 74 72 74 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -56.4 -56.5 -56.8 -56.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.8 -55.8 -56.1 -56.9 -56.5 -56.0 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 2.5 2.0 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.8 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 58 58 55 44 39 45 49 56 62 67 70 70 66 60 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 26 24 23 20 17 16 16 15 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 235 222 202 181 154 148 151 169 162 154 145 143 136 124 110 78 -26 200 MB DIV 20 27 17 -12 -10 -32 -71 0 33 -6 8 34 49 49 82 58 61 700-850 TADV -11 -10 -4 -8 -5 -9 -7 -5 0 1 0 0 0 -4 -19 -62 -70 LAND (KM) 574 605 587 579 622 863 1255 1606 1785 1793 1729 1634 1460 1248 1131 1306 1233 LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.1 41.5 41.5 41.1 39.0 35.9 33.5 32.6 33.0 34.0 35.3 37.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.0 56.3 55.0 54.1 53.4 51.7 48.7 45.4 43.1 42.0 41.3 40.8 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 8 6 8 17 20 14 7 5 6 9 12 14 17 27 37 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 15 CX,CY: 14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -10. -18. -23. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 9. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -17. -20. -23. -26. -29. -28. -28. -29. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -8. -16. -19. -22. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.6 58.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/29/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/29/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 46 43 34 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 38 29 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 32 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT