* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/28/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 46 45 44 43 42 42 43 42 42 41 43 44 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 27 30 33 37 52 59 47 18 19 30 24 17 14 16 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -5 -6 -11 -9 -2 -4 -7 -6 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 245 254 268 278 282 291 301 324 298 318 337 329 291 285 246 231 216 SST (C) 23.3 24.3 20.6 19.0 19.9 24.3 23.7 23.6 23.6 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.6 22.9 20.7 19.8 17.8 POT. INT. (KT) 95 102 82 75 77 101 99 98 96 101 98 95 95 92 83 80 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 88 73 68 69 86 88 88 84 85 83 81 83 81 74 72 69 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.8 -56.4 -56.6 -56.7 -55.8 -54.8 -55.4 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -55.8 -55.5 -55.0 -55.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 55 60 59 59 53 40 42 46 52 54 60 64 68 70 69 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 24 21 17 15 16 16 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 235 232 222 204 183 145 151 142 149 140 132 127 130 135 129 108 64 200 MB DIV 29 17 30 25 -5 -22 -38 -29 9 23 -3 10 33 34 64 56 69 700-850 TADV -25 -11 -16 -6 -11 -8 -9 -11 -1 1 0 0 -2 -3 1 -11 -38 LAND (KM) 567 580 613 609 590 724 1054 1431 1715 1822 1806 1778 1697 1548 1395 1312 1413 LAT (DEG N) 40.1 40.5 41.0 41.3 41.4 40.2 37.5 34.8 33.1 32.7 33.2 33.8 35.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.0 58.1 56.3 55.0 54.1 52.5 50.0 46.6 43.6 42.0 41.3 40.7 39.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 12 9 7 12 19 18 11 4 4 5 10 12 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 15 CX,CY: 15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -8. -19. -24. -26. -31. -34. -35. -38. -38. -38. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. 12. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -18. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -30. -30. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -8. -19. -21. -23. -30. -35. -38. -42. -44. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 40.1 60.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/28/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 49 49 46 37 26 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 46 43 34 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 41 38 29 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT