* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/28/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 45 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 45 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 43 42 42 40 38 38 40 43 44 44 44 45 46 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 32 27 29 33 49 63 68 23 18 17 24 20 20 18 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -6 -10 -12 -15 7 -5 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 237 246 254 265 273 287 298 319 318 283 286 314 290 277 266 254 235 SST (C) 23.2 23.4 23.7 19.5 17.6 21.4 24.6 23.2 23.8 25.1 23.6 23.5 23.3 22.9 22.9 21.2 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 95 96 97 77 71 84 105 97 99 106 94 93 91 89 90 82 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 85 84 70 65 73 93 88 89 92 82 79 78 77 77 72 72 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -56.5 -56.4 -56.1 -54.8 -54.4 -55.4 -55.5 -56.1 -56.4 -55.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 50 54 58 60 57 53 42 40 44 51 55 57 58 61 61 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 24 25 22 18 14 14 15 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 234 228 235 227 202 145 151 153 151 152 136 126 138 143 167 158 157 200 MB DIV 27 46 16 44 36 -13 -40 -56 -9 37 31 -10 13 27 23 43 45 700-850 TADV -29 -20 -14 -11 -6 -6 -6 -5 -4 1 -1 1 -2 -1 0 0 -8 LAND (KM) 522 565 566 593 578 623 903 1317 1675 1851 1855 1762 1664 1584 1490 1410 1330 LAT (DEG N) 39.7 40.2 40.8 41.3 41.6 41.1 38.6 35.3 33.0 32.5 33.3 34.6 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.8 59.7 57.7 56.2 55.2 54.0 52.2 48.8 44.9 41.8 40.1 39.6 39.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 14 10 7 9 19 22 17 10 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -7. -19. -27. -29. -32. -34. -36. -39. -40. -40. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 10. 5. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -14. -21. -24. -24. -27. -29. -31. -31. -31. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -9. -22. -30. -30. -34. -37. -40. -45. -49. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.7 61.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.04 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/28/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 47 47 48 45 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 46 43 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 42 39 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT