* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/28/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 45 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 45 39 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 40 41 41 41 40 37 37 38 40 41 42 42 43 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 32 33 28 30 42 60 64 44 22 22 27 21 23 20 18 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -1 -6 -12 -11 0 -5 -4 -8 3 -1 0 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 250 237 247 255 263 278 294 311 331 270 262 292 305 284 269 262 259 SST (C) 25.4 21.4 22.0 22.8 20.7 18.2 24.8 23.6 23.9 24.1 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.4 23.0 22.9 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 111 86 88 91 80 73 106 99 100 99 94 94 93 91 89 90 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 78 78 79 71 66 92 90 91 87 81 80 78 77 76 78 72 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.8 -55.4 -56.0 -56.4 -56.4 -54.9 -54.3 -55.2 -55.7 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -54.9 -54.5 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 2.5 3.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 48 50 54 57 59 57 48 41 45 50 55 55 53 57 58 58 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 26 24 23 20 15 13 14 15 14 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 252 233 223 233 222 168 153 162 144 157 143 121 126 152 155 167 155 200 MB DIV 14 30 41 15 30 -10 -22 -48 -25 6 54 10 -2 22 32 44 45 700-850 TADV -16 -29 -22 -12 -10 -5 -1 0 -7 -2 0 -4 -1 -2 2 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 453 487 520 520 538 600 789 1170 1544 1775 1812 1731 1648 1589 1543 1490 1423 LAT (DEG N) 39.6 40.1 40.6 41.1 41.5 41.4 39.6 36.4 33.9 33.0 33.6 34.7 35.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.9 61.8 59.8 58.1 56.9 55.5 53.6 50.2 46.0 42.4 40.4 40.0 40.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 12 8 7 16 22 19 12 7 5 4 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -6. -17. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -43. -44. -44. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 10. 5. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -24. -24. -25. -27. -29. -29. -30. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -6. -19. -31. -31. -33. -36. -40. -46. -51. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 39.6 63.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.06 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/28/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 47 47 45 39 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 46 44 38 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 40 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT