* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/28/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 52 52 52 49 41 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 52 52 52 49 41 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 49 49 46 43 43 39 35 33 32 32 33 36 38 41 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 33 29 29 32 28 37 63 71 67 40 25 23 21 15 18 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -3 -2 0 -7 -11 -12 -11 10 1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 252 247 236 245 255 277 286 296 318 340 318 293 296 271 269 254 269 SST (C) 22.7 26.1 24.8 23.7 21.3 16.2 19.8 24.9 24.2 24.7 25.6 24.9 24.0 23.9 23.0 22.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 93 118 107 99 84 66 79 108 103 106 111 103 96 96 91 88 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 102 94 87 75 61 71 96 94 96 98 89 83 82 78 76 73 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.8 -54.8 -55.6 -56.2 -56.4 -55.6 -54.6 -54.5 -55.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -55.6 -55.3 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.1 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 50 53 56 58 54 51 42 39 43 52 57 57 58 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 26 25 23 22 19 16 15 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 255 239 237 240 236 182 138 137 135 135 134 139 137 130 126 142 138 200 MB DIV 0 -2 34 35 16 31 -20 -32 -66 -16 29 25 21 58 35 33 36 700-850 TADV -18 -17 -17 -28 -21 -11 0 -2 -2 -5 -3 0 -9 4 5 2 3 LAND (KM) 462 525 576 568 555 545 656 956 1378 1749 1951 1969 1903 1834 1777 1705 1629 LAT (DEG N) 39.0 39.0 39.5 40.4 41.2 41.9 40.9 38.1 34.6 32.1 31.4 32.2 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.8 63.6 61.1 58.8 57.1 55.6 55.3 53.2 49.5 45.5 42.0 39.9 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 20 17 12 2 11 21 22 19 12 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 22 CX,CY: 22/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -19. -30. -37. -41. -42. -44. -46. -46. -45. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -27. -29. -30. -29. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. -1. -9. -21. -35. -43. -47. -48. -51. -55. -57. -58. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 39.0 65.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/28/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/28/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 52 52 52 49 41 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 51 48 40 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 37 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT