* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/27/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 57 56 51 43 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 57 56 51 43 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 57 57 53 46 43 41 37 33 29 26 24 23 24 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 26 26 34 34 36 69 78 66 39 40 38 31 18 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 1 0 -1 0 -4 -11 -13 -7 10 -1 -1 -1 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 253 256 260 235 238 259 279 287 295 318 340 359 3 2 318 294 260 SST (C) 21.9 26.0 25.4 25.0 24.1 18.7 15.5 20.8 25.0 24.5 26.3 26.7 26.8 26.6 25.8 24.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 88 116 113 111 104 76 66 82 108 105 120 123 123 121 115 105 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 101 102 103 96 70 61 73 96 96 111 111 110 109 104 95 86 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -55.3 -57.2 -57.6 -56.1 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.5 -56.1 -56.8 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.3 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 5 6 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 51 44 44 49 55 58 55 46 35 31 36 41 44 52 61 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 28 26 24 21 19 15 13 14 14 12 11 11 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 256 249 232 232 233 184 141 88 83 92 107 116 102 77 76 85 74 200 MB DIV 6 5 -18 20 57 65 17 -28 -62 -93 -56 18 -15 -9 48 22 34 700-850 TADV -15 -3 0 -8 -34 -37 -30 -9 -7 -6 0 2 4 5 6 10 8 LAND (KM) 362 498 662 710 726 545 457 600 935 1392 1839 2184 2381 2331 2123 1991 1963 LAT (DEG N) 38.6 37.7 37.4 38.0 39.2 41.8 42.6 41.3 38.3 34.4 30.8 28.3 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.6 67.3 64.6 61.2 57.7 53.1 52.6 53.5 52.4 50.0 47.2 44.4 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 24 29 28 13 3 10 20 22 20 15 12 14 18 19 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 6 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 17 CX,CY: 11/-12 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -28. -38. -43. -47. -51. -54. -54. -52. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -22. -26. -27. -28. -30. -31. -30. -29. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 1. -4. -12. -22. -37. -50. -56. -58. -62. -66. -65. -65. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.6 68.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 198.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 8.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/27/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 55 57 56 51 43 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 55 50 42 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 52 47 39 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT