* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/27/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 52 48 42 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 52 48 42 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 55 56 57 52 46 43 44 44 42 39 36 32 29 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 30 36 29 23 31 38 33 48 74 60 38 41 48 42 38 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 -3 1 2 -1 0 -6 -7 -12 1 3 -2 0 4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 249 261 260 269 243 241 252 276 281 291 316 335 1 6 1 332 308 SST (C) 19.0 21.4 24.7 25.2 24.8 24.7 14.1 15.1 16.1 23.9 23.3 26.0 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 77 84 106 112 111 110 69 65 70 99 97 117 125 125 126 120 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 74 93 103 105 103 66 61 66 87 88 106 114 113 115 111 106 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -55.7 -57.1 -58.4 -57.2 -56.0 -55.3 -55.1 -55.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 2.4 2.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 54 50 40 39 43 59 56 55 47 33 26 30 33 37 41 53 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 29 28 28 28 25 23 20 17 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 239 232 230 217 221 215 182 138 97 93 107 114 103 83 45 3 -16 200 MB DIV 29 -2 -14 -30 -15 32 75 13 -33 -76 -94 -51 -30 -37 -3 15 16 700-850 TADV -20 -2 2 9 9 -42 -45 -44 -21 -15 -5 -2 1 1 9 14 13 LAND (KM) 180 227 386 583 772 826 578 559 653 942 1348 1788 2173 2451 2434 2115 1833 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 39.3 38.1 37.0 36.8 39.3 42.3 43.0 41.5 38.7 35.1 31.3 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 70.5 69.5 66.9 63.1 54.6 49.2 48.3 49.3 49.3 48.4 47.1 45.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 18 26 33 33 15 3 11 16 20 19 15 13 14 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 8 18 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 16 CX,CY: -4/-14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 940 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -26. -35. -40. -44. -49. -53. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 14. 10. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -12. -18. -25. -30. -32. -33. -33. -33. -34. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -3. -7. -13. -20. -30. -42. -51. -54. -54. -56. -59. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 40.0 70.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 7.7% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/27/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 51 52 48 42 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 52 53 49 43 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 51 47 41 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 42 36 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT