* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/27/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 50 49 44 38 31 27 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 51 50 50 48 44 38 31 26 21 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 52 54 57 57 52 49 48 50 53 54 53 50 47 43 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 36 35 40 36 23 24 41 31 33 41 47 44 38 45 38 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -8 -3 -5 -1 5 3 -1 -3 -5 -7 -6 -3 -3 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 259 265 265 283 248 241 256 257 265 282 300 323 336 346 327 314 SST (C) 15.5 15.6 17.9 21.7 26.2 24.7 23.9 21.1 21.4 21.1 21.8 22.5 24.3 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 70 68 75 89 121 111 105 85 82 82 86 91 102 116 118 122 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 66 64 69 80 111 108 99 77 71 72 76 81 91 103 105 110 108 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.2 -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -56.0 -58.2 -58.9 -58.3 -57.6 -55.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 3.1 2.3 2.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 5 5 7 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 49 40 34 41 62 54 57 46 38 32 29 31 36 42 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 29 28 28 27 24 21 18 15 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 234 196 187 190 199 202 194 150 147 135 113 105 106 113 95 57 7 200 MB DIV 40 5 -9 -33 -52 4 75 80 45 11 6 -73 -48 -22 -21 1 24 700-850 TADV 25 -33 -6 1 16 2 -52 -60 -61 -47 -43 -16 -3 0 1 10 9 LAND (KM) 58 13 60 218 475 887 840 763 898 1019 1182 1358 1597 1904 2178 2347 2205 LAT (DEG N) 41.5 41.9 40.9 39.2 37.4 36.3 39.2 42.0 42.4 41.3 39.2 36.7 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.3 71.2 71.0 69.0 61.0 51.8 46.1 43.5 42.8 42.8 43.7 44.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 14 19 26 38 35 17 6 9 12 14 16 14 12 13 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 830 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -8. -7. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 13. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -13. -18. -24. -30. -34. -34. -33. -33. -34. -34. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -11. -17. -24. -28. -33. -35. -37. -39. -44. -47. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 41.5 69.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/27/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/27/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 51 50 50 48 44 38 31 26 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 50 48 44 38 31 26 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 50 48 44 38 31 26 21 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 39 33 26 21 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT