* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/26/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 60 57 51 44 34 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 60 49 49 41 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 53 53 51 42 41 40 39 35 32 30 29 29 28 27 24 26 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 44 42 47 54 44 53 48 47 35 44 58 66 65 59 57 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 -1 4 2 -7 -6 3 3 -3 3 -3 -13 -20 -8 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 222 230 244 253 251 265 289 287 318 287 253 241 248 260 272 286 284 SST (C) 26.1 21.5 21.3 15.7 14.1 13.9 21.8 24.8 23.8 23.8 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.5 20.8 20.4 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 89 87 71 68 70 90 110 105 104 95 89 85 84 87 87 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 82 79 67 65 67 82 104 102 98 87 80 77 76 80 82 82 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.9 -56.7 -57.7 -57.0 -54.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.5 -56.0 -57.8 -59.3 -60.0 -60.4 -60.1 -60.1 -59.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 66 57 49 43 32 32 41 52 56 50 46 43 41 38 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 29 32 34 31 27 28 26 22 20 18 17 17 17 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 143 160 173 166 169 136 139 169 152 138 104 60 2 -61 -100 -88 -30 200 MB DIV 214 131 81 90 19 19 -64 -38 -27 13 55 39 19 1 -7 -1 3 700-850 TADV 99 48 7 -48 -81 -6 18 20 1 -43 -45 -22 0 8 35 2 37 LAND (KM) 489 396 259 88 -20 42 256 741 1151 1211 1422 1699 1819 1451 969 351 -347 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 39.2 41.2 42.9 43.9 42.9 39.0 36.3 35.6 36.8 38.3 39.2 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.9 66.6 65.0 64.8 65.8 70.2 70.5 64.9 56.1 47.0 40.0 34.9 30.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 26 25 20 14 13 19 21 31 38 33 24 18 17 19 25 31 33 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 26 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -23. -32. -37. -43. -50. -58. -70. -77. -82. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 16. 18. 17. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 3. 1. 1. -2. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 7. 1. -6. -16. -26. -34. -41. -48. -54. -62. -67. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.3 68.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 95.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/26/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 60 49 49 41 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 53 56 45 45 37 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 38 38 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 29 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT