* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/26/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 61 54 53 50 47 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 61 41 40 37 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 49 47 37 39 42 42 41 37 34 31 28 29 30 N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 49 46 40 33 39 34 22 31 49 64 74 73 62 60 50 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 6 -6 -6 -7 -1 6 3 2 2 -9 -22 -6 10 4 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 230 227 237 248 255 274 285 279 263 250 247 252 269 261 245 245 N/A SST (C) 26.6 21.2 16.6 15.1 14.0 18.4 25.2 24.9 24.8 21.6 20.9 20.6 20.6 15.9 19.9 7.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 88 74 69 69 78 113 113 112 91 87 88 90 79 87 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 82 70 66 66 73 105 111 108 84 81 83 86 76 83 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -56.6 -56.9 -54.1 -52.6 -53.1 -55.2 -57.5 -58.7 -58.8 -58.4 -57.4 -58.3 -58.5 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 65 59 47 32 39 58 57 54 53 60 66 69 67 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 26 30 33 34 25 27 25 23 20 16 14 13 13 13 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 140 174 200 191 171 174 190 148 125 68 -4 -31 -29 -8 -21 N/A 200 MB DIV 229 202 115 71 -15 -17 -45 0 33 52 38 7 -33 -5 37 -189 N/A 700-850 TADV 81 87 64 36 3 -8 13 6 -47 -40 -35 -14 -32 -24 -48 30 N/A LAND (KM) 404 322 203 184 70 39 538 986 998 1055 1476 1703 910 -39 -115 -155 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.6 38.9 41.0 42.5 43.0 40.4 36.3 35.3 37.8 40.1 40.6 40.6 41.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 68.9 67.7 68.0 69.7 72.9 69.6 61.1 51.5 43.7 36.8 29.4 19.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 26 18 12 14 20 29 39 38 28 27 32 40 44 39 36 N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 25 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -14. -20. -26. -36. -47. -58. -70. -78. -84. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 16. 15. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 8. 2. 4. 1. -1. -7. -13. -16. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 16. 9. 8. 5. 2. -8. -20. -31. -43. -55. -64. -72. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 36.6 71.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/26/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 59 61 41 40 37 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 56 36 35 32 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 48 28 27 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT