* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 10/26/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 51 58 64 62 54 50 34 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 51 58 64 62 41 41 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 52 53 45 33 35 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 43 43 42 45 67 56 49 70 85 69 64 45 24 23 12 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 9 0 5 -2 -10 -4 -3 -20 -10 -9 -6 -6 -9 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 240 222 222 237 240 238 266 273 272 272 274 290 313 333 347 240 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.5 26.1 23.0 15.9 14.7 13.6 16.1 21.8 25.2 24.3 26.0 26.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 116 122 98 71 71 69 71 88 110 103 115 118 131 134 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 110 115 90 67 67 66 67 78 98 93 102 104 117 121 123 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.6 -56.4 -57.4 -56.5 -55.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 70 71 51 43 37 42 50 42 38 35 33 34 31 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 22 26 30 34 32 28 29 25 23 18 15 14 13 10 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 47 105 144 147 126 142 114 102 46 77 30 -1 0 -7 13 16 31 200 MB DIV 203 201 198 139 150 89 15 -34 -35 12 -11 -24 -10 -68 -38 -40 -34 700-850 TADV 87 78 95 63 23 -64 -26 9 9 42 20 -3 -6 -13 -2 -8 -1 LAND (KM) 263 371 609 586 433 125 -31 57 130 406 672 1102 1473 1742 1626 1515 1447 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.0 35.4 37.5 40.0 44.0 45.4 43.5 40.9 39.5 38.1 35.4 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.6 72.2 69.0 65.8 63.2 61.2 63.8 68.8 68.8 66.1 61.9 58.1 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 26 31 32 28 13 18 16 12 15 20 19 15 13 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -9. -20. -33. -48. -62. -72. -80. -86. -87. -85. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 11. 10. 8. 10. 5. 1. -6. -12. -12. -14. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 18. 24. 22. 14. 10. -6. -25. -44. -61. -69. -74. -76. -71. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.0 74.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 178.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.96 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 35.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 10/26/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 10/26/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 51 58 64 62 41 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 46 53 59 57 36 36 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 43 49 47 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 36 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT