* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 55 53 46 37 31 24 22 20 20 20 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 42 45 38 31 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 15 21 29 41 50 50 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 3 6 5 -1 -2 -5 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 209 213 226 247 265 277 257 269 266 279 281 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.8 29.4 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 164 165 173 172 167 165 157 163 164 163 164 168 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 154 155 165 161 148 143 133 135 133 133 135 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 6 9 6 8 4 8 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 80 77 74 69 60 55 53 51 53 50 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 14 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 49 26 11 1 -37 -2 -17 -22 -63 -57 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 98 102 91 58 63 20 40 18 23 -12 3 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 6 4 1 20 19 16 4 2 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 154 191 167 184 137 73 55 -47 -92 -123 -160 -238 -313 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 13 12 9 8 7 5 3 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 40 45 48 43 33 35 31 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 34. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -11. -19. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 25. 23. 16. 7. 1. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.9 94.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.1% 9.3% 7.4% 5.3% 9.4% 10.0% 10.6% Logistic: 5.2% 28.2% 13.0% 6.0% 2.1% 8.5% 13.7% 5.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 15.4% 7.6% 4.6% 2.6% 6.0% 7.9% 5.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/12/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 41 47 52 42 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 48 38 28 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 43 33 23 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT