* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 36 40 42 48 50 53 51 47 36 31 25 22 21 22 22 V (KT) LAND 30 34 36 40 42 48 50 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 41 44 46 36 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 17 20 18 17 25 27 40 47 51 41 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 3 6 1 -6 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 226 209 215 233 261 273 267 269 270 282 285 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.1 30.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 165 172 172 170 164 170 170 170 169 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 151 151 154 160 156 149 138 141 145 140 137 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 9 7 8 7 8 5 8 4 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 75 72 66 53 51 48 51 44 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 10 11 11 14 11 13 12 13 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 61 59 38 28 9 -42 -10 -8 12 -80 -77 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 80 96 98 85 67 32 45 53 26 10 -12 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 2 8 8 9 25 10 12 1 -2 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 149 220 225 210 204 100 52 -71 -146 -212 -313 -403 -498 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 11 10 6 6 7 7 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 35 43 53 36 37 16 5 5 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -5. -13. -21. -27. -32. -37. -40. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. 2. -0. -0. -6. -9. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 12. 18. 20. 23. 21. 17. 6. 1. -5. -8. -9. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.7 93.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.3% 8.3% 6.8% 4.6% 8.5% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 22.2% 9.4% 4.3% 1.3% 5.9% 8.7% 4.1% Bayesian: 2.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 12.1% 6.0% 3.7% 2.0% 4.8% 5.9% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/12/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 36 40 42 48 50 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 35 37 43 45 34 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 32 38 40 29 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT