* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 42 46 48 47 43 36 29 25 23 22 23 23 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 42 46 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 18 17 20 20 22 33 39 43 49 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 0 2 2 3 -3 -2 -4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 212 205 197 203 232 247 270 277 276 271 282 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.6 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.3 30.2 30.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 160 162 161 166 163 172 171 169 169 170 170 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 153 151 155 149 156 150 142 143 142 141 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 8 9 6 9 6 8 3 7 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 79 76 68 58 49 51 53 55 52 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 10 9 12 12 12 12 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 72 71 66 48 30 3 -39 0 10 -13 -61 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 79 78 92 87 60 77 22 37 23 27 -12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 0 -3 -1 4 -1 17 13 17 5 0 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 124 148 146 130 59 36 -68 -142 -187 -248 -368 -495 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 11 12 11 9 7 6 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 29 43 42 30 39 34 5 5 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -13. -21. -28. -33. -38. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 17. 21. 23. 22. 18. 11. 4. -0. -2. -3. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.0 94.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.5% 9.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 22.3% 11.1% 6.4% 1.8% 6.9% 6.7% 5.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 12.6% 6.8% 4.6% 0.6% 2.3% 5.2% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/12/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 33 35 42 46 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 38 42 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 33 37 27 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 24 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT