* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 39 42 44 42 40 34 33 32 30 31 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 18 17 19 20 18 23 29 39 41 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 1 2 -1 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 227 226 222 215 230 247 263 260 261 259 272 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.9 29.5 30.4 30.4 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 154 158 162 160 168 161 171 171 167 170 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 146 151 149 156 146 158 153 140 142 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 8 7 9 8 9 6 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 81 79 75 67 56 52 48 54 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 12 13 11 12 12 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 68 68 68 75 47 27 -11 12 6 24 -19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 65 64 71 98 95 69 24 48 58 47 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 0 -1 -1 2 5 16 12 18 3 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 18 80 118 166 154 113 -15 -26 -126 -230 -299 -386 -537 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 11 12 10 9 7 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 25 27 38 38 29 52 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 31. 36. 41. 45. 47. 49. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -9. -16. -23. -27. -32. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. 2. 2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 22. 24. 22. 20. 14. 13. 12. 10. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.6 93.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 23.2% 11.1% 5.8% 2.1% 7.9% 16.3% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 8.0% 3.7% 2.0% 0.7% 2.6% 5.4% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/11/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 27 32 34 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 25 30 32 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 27 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT