* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 28 33 35 36 32 28 27 27 26 25 26 25 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 28 28 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 26 26 27 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 16 17 21 25 21 21 21 26 31 35 35 38 34 25 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 0 0 4 5 8 3 2 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 267 252 233 227 221 229 232 235 257 251 262 256 265 262 270 276 319 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.0 28.9 29.8 30.7 30.6 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 148 151 154 160 162 152 149 165 170 170 169 171 171 170 150 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 138 140 144 151 152 140 132 144 158 153 143 145 146 140 122 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 5 9 6 11 8 11 7 9 5 8 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 84 83 82 79 74 68 60 57 59 64 63 66 66 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 3 4 3 3 4 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 57 64 62 61 67 64 53 44 -3 4 9 -6 -30 -25 -76 -49 -68 200 MB DIV 89 75 64 68 76 89 68 45 20 40 12 64 15 23 -22 8 -22 700-850 TADV -4 0 4 2 -4 1 0 4 5 9 2 7 7 9 2 3 2 LAND (KM) -78 -25 39 84 110 48 -51 -120 -160 -103 -102 -125 -141 -224 -290 -295 -292 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.7 21.2 22.9 24.8 26.2 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.8 93.6 94.3 95.1 96.8 98.3 98.9 99.0 98.4 97.6 96.5 95.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 8 8 7 6 8 8 8 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 23 23 25 45 22 13 5 6 17 9 5 5 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 46. 48. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -26. -31. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 15. 16. 12. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.9 92.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 19.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.2% 38.3% 23.2% 20.3% 8.7% 18.5% 20.0% 18.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 13.0% 7.8% 6.8% 2.9% 6.2% 6.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/11/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 28 28 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 23 25 25 28 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 18 21 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT