* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942021 09/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 38 40 41 37 40 35 35 34 38 36 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 28 29 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 24 28 28 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 15 16 19 22 17 18 13 24 27 35 26 26 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 4 -1 1 2 4 7 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 260 267 252 233 224 204 220 215 229 252 258 255 267 260 279 312 333 SST (C) 29.8 29.1 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.8 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.2 30.7 30.7 30.3 30.2 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 152 148 151 157 161 166 145 150 162 169 169 170 170 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 142 138 142 147 152 154 131 132 140 144 155 155 149 144 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 6 6 5 8 7 9 9 11 9 11 8 10 6 8 4 700-500 MB RH 82 83 82 85 85 82 81 73 66 61 56 58 58 58 63 65 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 7 7 9 8 10 9 9 7 8 5 4 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 78 69 69 78 72 66 39 22 24 24 4 16 -1 -11 -75 200 MB DIV 100 88 83 82 75 99 76 76 35 39 15 13 36 40 33 -8 -9 700-850 TADV 1 -3 0 3 0 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 3 3 8 0 6 4 LAND (KM) -122 -89 -41 22 55 37 -25 -143 -197 -243 -183 -153 -127 -126 -142 -163 -180 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.5 19.0 20.2 21.7 23.4 24.8 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.3 93.0 93.8 94.6 96.3 97.9 99.2 99.7 99.8 99.3 98.9 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 10 9 7 6 4 5 6 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 20 24 24 24 30 30 18 12 5 5 6 6 7 5 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 40. 45. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -9. -7. -13. -14. -15. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 18. 20. 21. 17. 20. 15. 16. 14. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.5 91.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 16.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.82 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 49.8% 30.1% 25.3% 13.3% 28.2% 41.1% 41.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% Consensus: 4.8% 17.6% 10.3% 8.6% 4.5% 9.4% 13.7% 14.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942021 INVEST 09/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942021 INVEST 09/11/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 28 29 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 24 25 29 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 21 25 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT