* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/19/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 60 72 78 82 85 90 93 94 93 91 85 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 48 60 72 78 82 85 90 93 94 93 91 85 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 40 49 57 62 67 72 76 77 76 77 77 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 15 17 16 17 9 8 11 14 12 9 12 16 21 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -1 0 -5 0 1 0 -1 -2 8 10 11 SHEAR DIR 302 297 285 265 247 260 224 163 338 321 237 227 212 285 226 185 215 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.6 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 127 127 128 129 125 122 119 118 117 116 117 117 115 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 109 106 107 110 113 109 106 102 100 98 96 98 102 104 83 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.5 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -55.8 -55.4 -55.3 -54.9 -55.4 -55.0 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 1.6 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.7 1.5 1.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 3 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 49 48 48 45 45 39 44 49 51 50 48 47 46 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 20 21 24 28 33 32 32 33 36 38 40 41 42 41 850 MB ENV VOR 123 124 127 140 152 155 160 177 178 169 151 141 152 128 103 124 154 200 MB DIV -6 1 -6 2 6 46 54 74 8 36 15 50 40 21 53 76 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 5 23 16 -1 4 4 3 0 6 2 -17 -46 LAND (KM) 1284 1257 1232 1237 1242 1287 1300 1292 1230 1274 1353 1253 1170 1165 1110 917 632 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 1 2 5 8 9 8 7 6 5 3 6 14 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 26 27 29 18 11 8 8 3 3 2 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 13. 13. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 18. 30. 42. 48. 52. 55. 60. 63. 64. 63. 61. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 56.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/19/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.6% 9.5% 6.4% 5.5% 8.1% 9.6% 16.1% Logistic: 1.3% 4.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 3.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.8% 3.3% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/19/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/19/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 48 60 72 78 82 85 90 93 94 93 91 85 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 45 57 69 75 79 82 87 90 91 90 88 82 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 51 63 69 73 76 81 84 85 84 82 76 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 43 55 61 65 68 73 76 77 76 74 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT