* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/18/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 56 67 75 78 82 86 90 90 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 46 56 67 75 78 82 86 90 90 93 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 37 44 52 59 63 70 76 79 78 79 81 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 23 23 22 15 19 15 15 4 12 9 11 11 8 2 7 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -6 -3 -2 -4 -2 2 2 8 SHEAR DIR 322 308 304 291 280 276 243 207 136 314 231 219 157 261 218 187 174 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.6 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 129 129 130 131 129 131 121 118 119 119 117 117 116 114 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 111 110 110 113 113 115 104 101 101 100 98 98 100 99 88 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 -55.3 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 2 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 50 49 46 47 46 44 48 50 52 51 53 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 23 26 31 32 31 32 34 36 36 39 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 114 115 120 126 138 147 150 165 171 169 145 146 145 132 135 101 122 200 MB DIV -32 -16 10 -17 -7 26 62 37 45 36 34 34 63 39 48 77 72 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -1 -1 0 4 15 22 2 3 7 5 0 10 7 0 -13 LAND (KM) 1276 1228 1182 1165 1150 1167 1277 1325 1295 1342 1436 1337 1170 1148 1110 972 806 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 2 4 8 9 7 7 7 7 5 7 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 20 24 30 32 15 13 6 2 4 5 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 11 CX,CY: -1/-10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 14. 13. 13. 15. 17. 16. 17. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 26. 37. 45. 48. 52. 56. 60. 60. 63. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.3 56.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.5% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.6% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/18/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 46 56 67 75 78 82 86 90 90 93 93 92 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 43 53 64 72 75 79 83 87 87 90 90 89 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 48 59 67 70 74 78 82 82 85 85 84 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 39 50 58 61 65 69 73 73 76 76 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT