* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 50 59 69 72 74 77 81 83 84 84 82 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 50 59 69 72 74 77 81 83 84 84 82 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 46 53 58 64 71 75 79 80 76 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 23 25 25 24 22 19 19 9 8 11 19 2 6 6 14 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 0 2 -3 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 325 314 309 302 293 260 270 225 142 217 247 246 243 118 121 170 158 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.9 24.8 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 127 127 128 129 131 132 125 120 119 121 123 127 105 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 110 109 109 108 112 116 118 111 104 100 103 109 113 91 80 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.5 -56.6 -55.9 -55.7 -55.4 -55.4 -55.5 -55.9 -55.6 -55.4 -55.4 -56.0 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.6 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 52 48 47 46 49 53 51 47 46 50 61 65 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 20 23 27 31 30 29 30 32 33 34 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 114 110 117 121 122 151 155 157 172 146 144 162 148 135 100 92 200 200 MB DIV -12 -28 -21 5 -21 -1 41 60 76 34 35 11 50 51 75 95 112 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 7 23 6 3 0 3 1 1 3 -20 -47 LAND (KM) 1382 1328 1276 1239 1203 1145 1190 1328 1474 1476 1279 1203 1280 1284 894 541 370 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.8 25.1 26.6 28.9 31.2 31.9 30.9 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.5 56.6 56.7 56.8 56.9 57.1 56.8 56.4 57.0 59.2 62.4 64.1 63.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 2 5 9 14 15 11 6 7 16 20 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 13 16 22 20 13 24 4 5 2 3 4 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):190/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 11. 10. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 20. 29. 39. 42. 44. 47. 51. 53. 54. 55. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 56.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.0% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 9.4% Logistic: 0.9% 2.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 2.8% 0.1% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 43 50 59 69 72 74 77 81 83 84 84 82 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 41 48 57 67 70 72 75 79 81 82 82 80 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 43 52 62 65 67 70 74 76 77 77 75 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 43 53 56 58 61 65 67 68 68 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT