* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 41 47 53 61 69 71 73 74 79 80 81 81 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 41 47 53 61 69 71 73 74 79 80 81 81 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 41 47 53 57 62 69 73 74 74 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 22 25 26 23 26 18 20 6 10 8 14 5 2 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 0 -3 -1 0 -1 -5 -6 -2 2 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 319 320 312 303 299 273 265 239 233 203 277 246 255 144 247 200 31 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.1 26.2 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 127 125 124 124 126 127 121 118 117 117 117 114 117 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 111 109 107 104 105 109 110 104 100 98 98 98 96 102 96 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -56.7 -56.4 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 52 52 47 43 42 41 46 52 58 64 67 71 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 19 21 23 27 31 30 30 30 34 35 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 108 111 111 120 115 132 140 131 127 134 130 132 115 121 110 141 152 200 MB DIV -5 -9 -22 -19 -10 -13 20 38 52 83 54 68 64 90 78 44 110 700-850 TADV -1 1 -3 -5 -3 -1 0 10 15 5 1 2 2 5 13 14 13 LAND (KM) 1478 1429 1381 1328 1276 1202 1187 1255 1290 1307 1342 1395 1375 1259 1135 998 894 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 6 8 7 6 5 5 5 8 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 18 13 10 8 7 10 11 7 10 6 2 4 5 4 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 9. 14. 11. 11. 10. 14. 14. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 17. 23. 31. 39. 41. 43. 44. 49. 50. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.5 56.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 10.9% 8.3% 6.2% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 37 41 47 53 61 69 71 73 74 79 80 81 81 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 38 44 50 58 66 68 70 71 76 77 78 78 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 33 39 45 53 61 63 65 66 71 72 73 73 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 37 45 53 55 57 58 63 64 65 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT