* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 46 47 47 53 58 62 62 64 65 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 46 47 47 53 58 62 62 64 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 35 35 35 38 42 47 52 56 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 21 27 30 26 28 32 34 37 40 28 25 15 20 16 12 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -4 -1 1 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 324 324 323 315 305 293 270 269 253 248 226 198 231 249 206 181 242 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 133 131 128 125 125 126 126 126 128 120 120 119 119 117 113 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 114 112 109 107 106 106 107 108 112 104 102 99 100 99 95 93 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.5 -56.1 -56.1 -55.7 -55.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.2 -56.3 -56.8 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 50 49 47 41 36 37 38 31 31 32 44 51 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 20 20 21 25 27 29 28 28 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 112 112 115 121 141 130 136 155 157 158 147 140 124 96 83 200 MB DIV -17 1 -13 -23 -15 -30 -9 15 31 38 22 32 15 11 -4 14 35 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 19 22 20 14 -1 -3 4 0 2 9 LAND (KM) 1499 1433 1369 1319 1269 1179 1119 1106 1135 1207 1291 1342 1264 1221 1231 1140 1016 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 3 2 2 5 9 9 7 4 6 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 11 9 7 10 13 12 11 16 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -8. -16. -22. -26. -27. -28. -30. -31. -29. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 8. 10. 12. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 23. 28. 32. 32. 34. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.9 56.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.8% 9.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 40 43 46 47 47 53 58 62 62 64 65 65 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 37 40 43 44 44 50 55 59 59 61 62 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 35 38 39 39 45 50 54 54 56 57 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 27 30 31 31 37 42 46 46 48 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT