* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 43 44 44 42 45 50 52 55 58 57 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 41 43 44 44 42 45 50 52 55 58 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 36 39 41 43 46 50 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 12 21 25 29 26 30 26 34 31 38 33 35 23 18 11 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -3 2 0 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 333 331 326 324 317 297 277 265 247 252 237 240 218 232 229 262 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 131 129 126 124 124 125 126 129 125 120 119 119 118 115 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 114 113 111 108 106 105 107 109 112 108 102 101 101 99 95 92 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.9 -56.1 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -55.8 -56.4 -56.9 -57.1 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 51 51 51 47 42 38 38 34 34 36 46 54 58 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 15 18 23 24 27 28 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 89 104 116 119 112 118 121 124 102 89 84 82 77 57 55 28 51 200 MB DIV -10 -17 7 6 -12 -14 -6 10 17 20 46 12 31 35 74 68 80 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 -2 -2 -4 -2 -1 -8 2 2 6 0 0 1 10 12 LAND (KM) 1558 1488 1420 1377 1335 1248 1192 1196 1180 1177 1196 1251 1336 1399 1303 1233 1185 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 6 4 1 4 6 7 7 6 6 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 12 9 8 10 21 14 9 14 15 4 4 3 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -18. -24. -29. -31. -33. -33. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 12. 15. 20. 22. 26. 28. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.3 56.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.1% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 38 41 43 44 44 42 45 50 52 55 58 57 60 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 35 38 40 41 41 39 42 47 49 52 55 54 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 35 36 36 34 37 42 44 47 50 49 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 26 27 27 25 28 33 35 38 41 40 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT