* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 48 47 48 54 59 62 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 48 47 48 54 59 62 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 40 44 47 47 47 46 45 46 50 52 53 54 57 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 7 15 22 20 28 28 32 26 32 29 36 22 21 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 -4 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 290 307 332 319 321 316 295 273 263 247 256 252 250 203 231 246 266 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 128 130 130 132 129 127 130 134 134 136 130 121 119 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 109 111 111 113 110 109 113 117 117 117 110 102 100 100 101 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.0 -55.8 -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 51 52 53 54 54 50 45 42 42 41 42 43 47 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 20 25 27 28 29 850 MB ENV VOR 50 76 91 102 112 114 110 126 129 104 101 73 78 91 94 89 60 200 MB DIV -18 -4 0 -12 10 10 -21 6 14 24 16 34 16 38 31 68 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 -4 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -8 -1 7 3 -1 -2 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1687 1647 1608 1563 1521 1441 1367 1279 1181 1075 1022 1052 1159 1235 1273 1372 1458 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 5 4 4 5 7 7 5 4 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 15 13 11 14 17 24 30 19 18 22 22 11 5 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 0. 5. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 18. 20. 20. 18. 17. 18. 24. 29. 32. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.3 55.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.7% 12.7% 10.2% 0.0% 10.2% 8.9% 7.3% Logistic: 1.0% 4.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.2% 5.1% 3.6% 0.0% 3.9% 3.3% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 41 45 48 50 50 48 47 48 54 59 62 64 64 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 45 47 47 45 44 45 51 56 59 61 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 39 41 41 39 38 39 45 50 53 55 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 30 32 32 30 29 30 36 41 44 46 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT