* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 42 39 40 41 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 42 39 40 41 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 38 41 44 49 52 51 49 47 44 40 37 36 37 38 40 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 12 8 10 16 28 29 30 33 35 36 34 36 29 27 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 241 266 294 305 311 323 303 292 281 282 275 276 254 250 224 208 215 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.9 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 127 128 129 127 128 132 135 133 131 127 129 136 136 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 102 102 106 109 112 110 111 114 114 113 113 110 113 122 122 113 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -55.7 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.2 -56.3 -55.9 -55.9 -55.8 -56.1 -56.3 -57.0 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 51 52 53 52 49 40 36 35 41 44 50 57 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 14 12 10 8 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 72 82 102 116 117 113 125 116 89 81 65 88 75 46 48 200 MB DIV -11 -15 -11 -3 -3 -1 -20 -21 -6 20 12 2 5 12 45 38 33 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -4 -5 0 16 29 17 10 3 -5 -1 4 LAND (KM) 1679 1671 1676 1660 1609 1451 1313 1171 1075 1008 1039 1106 1205 1333 1548 1825 2031 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.2 29.6 28.0 26.7 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.3 24.8 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.4 55.7 55.8 55.8 56.2 56.7 57.4 57.9 58.3 58.0 57.6 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 5 7 8 6 6 4 1 2 4 5 7 11 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 12 14 11 8 12 19 24 22 18 17 13 24 21 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -31. -33. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -10. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 20. 20. 16. 12. 9. 10. 11. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.9 55.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 15.7% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.4% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 41 44 48 51 52 50 50 46 42 39 40 41 44 45 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 43 46 47 45 45 41 37 34 35 36 39 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 37 40 41 39 39 35 31 28 29 30 33 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 30 31 29 29 25 21 18 19 20 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT