* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 44 50 51 51 49 48 48 49 50 56 61 62 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 44 50 51 51 49 48 48 49 50 56 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 40 40 39 38 37 36 39 43 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 14 12 12 27 27 33 30 34 31 33 26 32 18 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 244 268 290 293 318 307 286 270 265 255 262 254 255 219 192 150 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.4 28.0 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.6 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 123 123 125 128 129 128 135 145 146 145 139 136 129 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 100 102 104 110 112 112 118 125 126 126 119 115 110 108 111 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.8 -55.9 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.5 -55.6 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 52 52 54 53 53 51 52 49 42 38 37 44 46 49 56 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 17 17 16 14 14 13 14 14 16 22 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 32 52 57 69 85 102 113 112 117 120 104 98 91 95 95 99 95 200 MB DIV 4 -9 -18 -10 0 -8 -9 -24 1 34 20 14 51 19 61 62 71 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -6 -2 -4 2 2 1 8 11 10 5 LAND (KM) 1670 1667 1661 1671 1690 1577 1399 1225 1075 948 889 879 919 938 1021 1184 1447 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.6 29.3 27.7 26.3 25.2 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.6 54.7 54.9 55.2 55.4 55.9 56.6 57.5 58.4 59.4 60.4 61.3 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 3 4 8 8 8 6 5 4 6 4 3 5 11 17 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 11 14 11 8 19 28 29 30 26 24 15 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. -0. -6. -13. -19. -24. -27. -32. -34. -33. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -1. 6. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 26. 26. 24. 23. 23. 24. 25. 31. 36. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.1 54.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.70 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.2% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.4% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 31 34 38 44 50 51 51 49 48 48 49 50 56 61 62 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 41 47 48 48 46 45 45 46 47 53 58 59 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 34 40 41 41 39 38 38 39 40 46 51 52 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 31 32 32 30 29 29 30 31 37 42 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT