* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 10/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 28 32 35 36 36 35 35 37 40 44 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 17 14 15 21 27 31 35 35 29 28 22 21 17 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -7 -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -5 0 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 240 248 268 283 312 317 300 285 271 264 257 265 259 275 255 272 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 122 123 123 127 128 130 131 140 144 148 147 139 133 128 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 98 100 101 101 107 111 114 115 124 127 130 128 118 112 107 105 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.5 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.0 -56.2 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 -56.3 -55.8 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -55.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 55 54 51 53 51 45 39 39 40 42 47 51 51 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 14 17 19 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 20 41 57 57 71 94 105 112 101 117 103 100 93 90 71 58 49 200 MB DIV -9 3 -7 -16 -11 -13 -13 -13 -8 4 20 4 13 4 0 0 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 -2 -5 -2 -4 0 0 2 4 4 2 9 LAND (KM) 1682 1692 1688 1679 1667 1714 1539 1342 1142 972 851 837 882 901 958 1026 1043 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 30.4 29.0 27.5 26.2 25.4 25.2 25.7 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.2 53.9 54.0 54.3 54.7 55.2 56.1 57.2 58.6 60.2 62.0 63.6 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 2 3 3 6 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 11 11 12 13 15 11 12 23 31 34 37 19 13 11 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 1. -6. -13. -19. -23. -26. -30. -31. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 29. 32. 32. 30. 29. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.1 54.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 10/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 10/16/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 27 31 35 42 49 52 52 50 49 49 53 56 58 61 64 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 31 38 45 48 48 46 45 45 49 52 54 57 60 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 31 38 41 41 39 38 38 42 45 47 50 53 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT