* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 25 30 36 42 44 41 37 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 28 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 28 32 31 30 28 27 30 34 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 10 17 17 21 23 31 49 64 71 48 36 49 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 -2 4 10 6 -1 -15 -6 22 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 306 229 247 295 282 274 292 285 279 262 259 278 293 274 195 179 N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.1 25.4 20.2 18.8 16.1 15.9 13.1 10.6 2.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 148 148 148 148 149 138 112 85 84 79 77 73 73 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 119 117 115 113 118 113 98 80 81 76 74 70 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -55.1 -55.1 -54.1 -54.2 -52.1 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 5 4 5 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 56 56 54 51 47 53 60 57 54 59 63 49 61 76 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -34 -30 -49 -49 -45 -78 -96 -76 -28 -27 0 -17 55 88 182 N/A 200 MB DIV -42 -17 17 5 0 -4 -15 10 20 35 68 76 35 80 1 -177 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 9 4 4 0 0 9 31 37 59 45 155 174 165 77 116 N/A LAND (KM) 83 -43 -120 -146 -140 -109 -146 -160 -51 31 114 259 1026 1421 1492 951 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.6 35.2 35.6 35.8 35.9 36.3 37.5 39.4 41.6 44.1 46.8 50.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.1 78.0 78.5 78.7 78.6 78.2 78.4 77.7 75.2 69.6 61.2 49.6 39.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 6 3 2 0 5 10 19 28 40 42 35 31 37 31 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 26 4 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 8. 5. 0. -8. -21. -35. -48. -55. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 24. 21. 17. 8. -4. -13. -18. -22. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.7 77.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 17.0% 10.2% 2.5% 0.8% 4.0% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 28 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 25 26 27 27 28 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 20 21 21 22 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT