* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 40 43 42 38 30 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 27 29 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 20 24 26 26 27 29 32 31 28 27 26 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 9 5 9 13 18 20 28 31 42 62 73 78 61 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 2 9 3 -4 -12 -14 4 23 SHEAR DIR 308 328 319 308 292 302 291 302 286 281 267 269 284 298 300 262 191 SST (C) 28.9 29.4 29.4 28.4 28.4 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.1 25.0 19.2 17.1 14.8 14.2 13.4 12.7 10.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 159 159 142 141 146 146 149 139 110 84 81 77 74 71 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 136 134 118 115 115 115 120 117 98 79 77 74 71 69 70 70 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -55.4 -54.5 -53.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 5 6 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 64 61 57 56 54 62 63 60 58 68 68 55 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 13 -14 -18 -23 -44 -36 -73 -76 -45 -10 -3 24 -25 -6 0 52 200 MB DIV 38 0 -24 -8 16 -7 4 -9 37 32 38 76 63 42 34 77 -88 700-850 TADV 3 3 7 5 4 2 4 15 45 39 92 153 185 186 120 119 62 LAND (KM) 386 274 145 52 -32 -116 -141 -211 -231 -72 162 143 473 1212 1227 993 1191 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.2 33.0 33.6 34.2 34.9 35.1 35.8 37.6 40.0 42.7 45.5 48.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.8 75.9 76.9 77.6 78.2 78.8 79.0 79.4 78.5 75.0 68.1 58.2 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 8 6 2 3 7 13 24 33 42 39 31 24 32 35 HEAT CONTENT 32 48 41 21 23 5 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -8. -19. -33. -51. -65. -68. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 22. 18. 10. -2. -17. -30. -32. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.6 74.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 22.4% 14.1% 5.0% 1.6% 9.3% 7.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 7.6% 4.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 27 27 29 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 21 23 24 25 25 27 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 19 20 21 21 23 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT