* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 40 44 44 41 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 23 25 26 27 28 29 32 30 28 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 11 8 5 11 12 21 19 28 36 56 71 83 81 60 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 7 3 1 -15 -19 -11 3 SHEAR DIR 334 317 330 322 311 311 308 310 295 284 273 265 283 299 308 303 270 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 29.3 29.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 28.6 26.9 21.3 18.0 15.2 16.1 13.5 14.1 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 157 159 143 144 146 149 146 126 90 82 78 78 73 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 135 135 119 116 114 119 121 110 84 79 75 74 70 69 70 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -55.1 -56.0 -55.5 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 9 7 8 3 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 65 65 60 57 54 59 66 66 65 66 76 64 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 32 13 -15 -14 -32 -26 -50 -62 -53 -17 -15 -6 -17 -61 -21 -47 200 MB DIV 19 35 3 -18 -5 -13 -6 -16 35 42 56 51 77 15 -7 35 71 700-850 TADV 0 -2 2 7 6 4 5 12 35 41 90 87 225 237 250 112 127 LAND (KM) 484 403 284 155 54 -60 -118 -171 -223 -150 -17 4 159 996 1331 764 597 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.4 32.0 32.8 33.5 34.4 34.9 35.3 36.7 39.0 41.9 44.8 47.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.9 74.9 76.0 77.0 77.7 78.7 78.9 79.3 79.1 76.8 71.4 62.5 50.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 10 8 4 2 5 11 19 30 40 42 36 30 26 31 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 49 41 21 18 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. -5. -14. -28. -45. -62. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 24. 21. 15. 3. -12. -27. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 31.0 73.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 40.4% 29.4% 16.8% 7.4% 25.9% 24.1% 18.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 13.7% 9.9% 5.6% 2.5% 8.6% 8.0% 6.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 19 20 21 21 22 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT