* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 25 31 36 41 43 44 42 40 35 26 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 29 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 22 22 25 26 27 27 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 8 9 7 10 15 21 25 27 23 30 41 50 61 73 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 -4 -4 2 8 3 3 -5 -20 -2 SHEAR DIR 337 338 306 314 313 283 292 292 312 304 292 259 258 270 295 293 268 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.2 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.1 27.3 24.6 19.9 20.1 16.8 16.6 13.9 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 152 161 155 142 147 147 150 127 104 84 88 80 80 76 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 131 137 131 114 115 115 118 105 91 78 83 77 76 73 72 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 9 4 6 2 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 67 65 61 59 57 54 59 66 67 65 63 68 71 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 19 24 8 -13 -23 -39 -34 -59 -76 -65 -21 29 50 36 -16 8 200 MB DIV 20 15 25 6 -14 12 -4 2 -20 29 48 35 78 78 71 74 85 700-850 TADV -3 -1 3 7 7 5 3 2 8 27 31 40 24 99 271 160 191 LAND (KM) 558 460 366 238 123 -36 -87 -47 -41 -47 72 119 193 221 1120 1079 746 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.4 33.2 34.5 35.3 35.5 35.8 36.8 38.6 40.7 43.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.0 74.0 75.1 76.2 77.0 78.0 78.0 77.6 77.4 76.5 74.2 69.4 61.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 5 3 2 3 9 17 26 37 45 44 38 37 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 36 50 36 25 4 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 5. 2. -3. -8. -15. -25. -36. -48. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 16. 21. 23. 24. 23. 20. 15. 6. -4. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.7 73.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 27.5% 17.6% 7.2% 2.4% 11.6% 14.4% 17.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 9.3% 5.9% 2.4% 0.8% 3.9% 4.8% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 29 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 23 24 24 25 25 25 27 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 23 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT