* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 29 36 42 44 44 43 42 38 29 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 29 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 25 26 27 27 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 8 8 5 13 16 27 26 26 23 35 49 61 67 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 -5 -6 2 5 6 0 -11 5 SHEAR DIR 319 327 339 321 306 270 280 273 302 304 301 276 256 253 270 280 257 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.7 29.5 28.7 29.2 29.2 28.7 27.3 24.7 24.0 18.2 18.9 16.4 15.3 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 152 164 161 145 152 151 143 126 103 101 79 84 79 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 130 141 136 118 119 118 112 101 87 89 75 79 76 75 73 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 7 9 5 5 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 70 68 63 61 59 56 59 65 67 64 59 60 64 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 18 21 0 -33 -33 -30 -43 -53 -75 -66 -20 -10 37 36 140 200 MB DIV 2 20 26 26 0 -5 8 -8 -12 20 30 29 40 58 46 68 94 700-850 TADV -1 -3 0 5 8 8 4 3 10 16 24 38 41 50 110 263 116 LAND (KM) 610 499 394 288 167 -17 -74 -50 -57 -35 52 156 213 196 289 1101 1221 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 31.0 31.6 32.3 33.1 34.6 35.5 35.9 36.0 36.5 37.5 39.4 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.6 74.6 75.6 76.5 77.6 77.9 77.4 76.8 76.3 75.1 72.4 67.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 6 3 3 3 5 10 18 26 35 41 42 41 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 33 48 52 28 4 4 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. 30. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 2. -3. -7. -13. -22. -33. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 18. 9. -1. -9. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.5 72.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 23.9% 14.8% 5.4% 1.6% 8.9% 11.5% 9.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 8.1% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 29 28 23 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 24 24 25 25 25 27 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 20 20 21 21 21 23 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT