* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 24 28 35 40 45 45 44 42 38 30 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 24 28 27 27 27 27 30 28 23 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 19 19 20 22 25 26 27 30 30 29 29 28 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 7 7 9 12 18 23 27 26 29 33 45 61 67 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -5 -5 -3 -6 -3 -5 -4 0 5 4 1 -9 -11 SHEAR DIR 303 318 326 333 313 284 266 282 277 310 301 290 272 268 283 295 293 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.7 28.5 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.5 25.8 24.4 19.5 18.4 15.7 15.3 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 155 154 164 143 149 151 147 141 111 103 83 82 78 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 134 132 140 119 118 118 114 111 93 90 77 78 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 6 7 3 4 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 70 70 66 62 60 60 61 68 72 69 64 63 66 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 20 16 18 -27 -28 -33 -36 -58 -78 -75 -20 -16 10 33 30 200 MB DIV 20 2 12 25 35 -15 10 1 1 -11 24 24 20 60 61 63 49 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 2 1 9 4 1 1 7 22 30 65 77 203 269 210 LAND (KM) 703 610 494 379 269 55 -59 -34 -33 -70 13 85 71 103 113 962 1225 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.5 31.1 31.8 32.5 34.1 35.2 35.7 35.8 36.1 37.1 38.9 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.3 72.4 73.5 74.5 75.5 77.1 77.6 77.4 76.9 76.7 75.8 73.7 69.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 9 3 2 1 3 9 17 26 35 41 41 37 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 37 33 49 23 13 4 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 2. -2. -7. -13. -22. -33. -43. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 20. 25. 25. 24. 22. 18. 10. -0. -10. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.2 71.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 22.8% 13.1% 3.8% 1.3% 7.3% 11.2% 14.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 7.7% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.4% 3.7% 4.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/09/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 22 24 28 27 27 27 27 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 19 21 23 27 26 26 26 26 29 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 23 23 23 23 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT