* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 43 46 47 47 46 41 34 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 30 28 27 27 28 28 27 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 19 19 21 23 24 26 26 27 28 29 28 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 10 6 6 8 19 18 28 22 31 39 46 62 69 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -5 -5 -5 -2 -4 -6 -4 -7 -2 -1 0 2 5 -11 -11 SHEAR DIR 318 306 323 331 345 298 248 277 279 303 288 287 279 271 269 296 290 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.7 26.8 21.7 15.5 16.0 15.4 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 160 155 153 162 143 148 149 152 146 124 91 76 78 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 138 133 131 136 116 116 116 120 120 107 83 73 75 74 71 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 6 8 4 5 2 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 69 70 68 65 63 61 61 66 68 68 63 63 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 29 26 19 9 -8 -28 -30 -38 -49 -57 -76 -30 -31 6 41 33 200 MB DIV 38 22 6 11 20 1 14 -9 -18 -5 21 35 48 45 69 69 35 700-850 TADV -6 -4 0 0 0 8 7 5 4 8 25 38 92 137 181 226 140 LAND (KM) 793 710 607 496 384 171 13 -46 -57 -102 -163 -88 -11 13 28 630 1349 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.2 31.9 33.3 34.6 35.2 35.4 35.7 36.8 38.7 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.2 71.2 72.3 73.3 74.2 76.0 76.9 77.4 77.7 78.2 78.0 76.1 71.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 9 6 2 2 3 9 16 26 33 38 36 33 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 39 37 35 57 24 15 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. 32. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. -1. -6. -13. -22. -33. -44. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 26. 27. 27. 26. 21. 14. 3. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.0 70.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 17.6% 9.4% 2.8% 1.0% 6.1% 14.1% 18.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 5.9% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 2.0% 4.7% 6.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 30 28 27 27 28 28 27 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 35 29 27 26 26 27 27 26 15 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 31 25 23 22 22 23 23 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT