* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 50 52 52 51 50 46 41 34 28 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 37 31 32 27 27 27 22 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 36 39 35 30 28 27 27 30 29 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 11 10 10 9 5 7 16 20 26 22 29 32 34 45 54 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 1 4 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 306 318 304 316 324 319 280 251 281 279 295 284 294 282 283 281 285 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.6 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.0 29.1 27.2 24.5 22.7 23.0 21.2 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 159 154 162 144 147 149 146 150 126 103 94 97 89 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 137 132 137 119 116 115 113 118 103 90 84 88 82 74 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.9 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 5 6 1 4 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 68 68 68 69 67 65 61 62 61 66 70 67 68 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 24 22 14 4 -26 -17 -46 -51 -72 -87 -74 -59 -30 -4 5 200 MB DIV 12 45 27 -2 7 32 8 19 -19 1 -11 29 19 22 19 39 43 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -5 2 0 5 6 4 2 0 5 22 34 49 67 100 132 LAND (KM) 865 785 701 590 478 254 64 -24 -3 1 -41 -38 57 167 224 371 332 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.8 31.4 32.8 34.2 35.2 35.5 35.5 35.9 36.8 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.2 71.2 72.3 73.3 75.1 76.5 76.9 77.1 77.0 77.1 76.4 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 10 10 7 3 1 0 4 8 15 21 25 28 31 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 41 38 37 48 26 27 10 12 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. -9. -15. -22. -29. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 25. 27. 27. 26. 25. 21. 16. 9. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 69.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.4% 11.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 20.1% 10.1% 2.7% 0.9% 9.0% 18.7% 20.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 12.4% 7.4% 3.9% 0.3% 3.0% 10.2% 6.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 34 38 43 37 31 32 27 27 27 22 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 31 35 40 34 28 29 24 24 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 28 22 23 18 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT