* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 47 50 51 50 50 46 41 35 29 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 42 37 31 29 27 27 26 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 38 43 35 30 29 27 27 30 29 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 11 10 12 5 9 8 19 16 25 25 33 33 45 52 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -5 -7 -4 -9 -3 -3 1 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 305 308 315 300 306 346 270 242 274 270 290 273 290 285 269 267 279 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.6 28.9 29.3 29.2 29.3 28.9 26.4 23.9 17.6 19.4 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 165 162 159 153 162 148 153 149 153 148 118 101 78 83 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 139 137 131 134 118 119 114 119 119 100 90 73 78 76 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 8 3 5 2 4 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 68 68 70 67 63 63 61 61 65 68 70 68 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 20 14 10 4 -32 -33 -36 -46 -58 -65 -81 -25 -7 18 13 200 MB DIV -4 18 44 21 -4 27 8 12 -14 -19 -7 15 17 50 16 52 34 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -3 0 3 12 6 5 0 4 16 29 63 67 92 130 LAND (KM) 947 887 806 705 599 362 141 -2 -5 -1 -3 -86 -7 122 240 229 244 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.6 31.0 32.4 33.8 34.9 35.4 35.5 35.5 36.3 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.2 68.9 69.8 70.8 71.9 73.8 75.5 76.4 76.9 76.9 77.1 77.0 75.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 10 9 4 2 0 2 6 12 21 25 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 35 36 37 38 73 25 24 15 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -2. -8. -14. -21. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 17. 22. 25. 26. 25. 25. 21. 16. 10. 4. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 68.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.61 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.4% 13.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 28.2% 17.4% 5.6% 1.7% 12.7% 12.5% 22.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 16.1% 10.5% 5.4% 0.6% 4.3% 8.3% 7.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 34 38 42 42 37 31 29 27 27 26 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 35 39 39 34 28 26 24 24 23 17 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 30 34 34 29 23 21 19 19 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT