* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 09/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 41 44 44 45 44 43 42 39 35 34 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 41 34 29 31 30 29 28 25 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 25 28 26 27 27 32 33 34 34 33 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 16 17 11 13 6 12 9 19 19 26 22 25 27 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -8 -2 -3 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 294 294 295 301 308 296 283 272 248 266 262 295 282 288 277 277 268 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.2 28.5 26.6 26.4 26.8 27.3 25.6 23.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 163 162 151 155 151 153 140 117 114 118 127 112 99 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 138 138 130 131 125 121 110 95 91 95 103 96 89 88 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.8 -55.3 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 2 4 2 3 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 68 68 69 69 65 63 63 57 54 58 62 66 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 2 8 13 5 0 -40 -41 -36 -45 -58 -69 -88 -71 -38 -37 200 MB DIV 36 -4 -11 17 41 -2 22 4 7 -3 -21 -20 2 0 33 4 53 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -1 -5 -5 0 5 18 5 5 0 1 3 13 22 23 28 LAND (KM) 1020 969 895 821 734 505 254 40 -33 -82 7 62 100 182 263 276 369 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.6 31.6 33.1 34.5 35.8 36.4 36.4 36.1 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.2 67.9 68.7 69.5 70.4 72.6 74.6 76.2 76.9 76.8 75.8 75.1 74.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 12 10 9 5 3 4 2 3 7 14 20 26 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 36 35 33 32 47 29 4 5 1 0 2 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 24. 24. 25. 24. 23. 22. 19. 15. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.9 67.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 09/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 62.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 22.2% 12.4% 4.6% 1.5% 8.9% 10.4% 26.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 7.5% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 3.0% 3.5% 8.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 09/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 09/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 41 34 29 31 30 29 28 25 21 20 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 28 34 39 32 27 29 28 27 26 23 19 18 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 30 35 28 23 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT