* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 43 48 52 54 55 56 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 43 48 52 54 55 56 58 59 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 28 31 35 39 44 48 52 55 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 9 11 8 14 10 11 13 13 18 15 18 15 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -2 -5 0 -3 1 -1 2 -2 0 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 107 104 266 303 322 309 318 288 288 256 282 253 279 272 285 278 288 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.4 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 147 146 144 140 139 135 142 141 148 147 138 135 131 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 121 123 122 118 114 113 112 119 119 124 121 112 109 107 104 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 48 47 46 49 48 50 48 50 45 45 41 39 36 40 42 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -63 -58 -59 -50 -46 -15 -24 -17 -44 -29 -35 -12 -27 -28 -48 -58 200 MB DIV 33 42 20 18 13 52 23 13 27 0 14 -7 4 -17 13 -8 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 3 -1 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 865 828 792 742 679 584 510 511 543 660 832 1037 1154 1222 1234 1193 1146 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.5 31.1 31.7 32.2 32.6 33.0 33.1 33.0 32.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.6 70.0 70.6 71.3 72.0 72.4 71.9 71.1 69.3 67.2 64.9 63.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 6 5 4 3 3 6 8 10 9 6 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 17 17 18 20 18 17 14 21 14 21 22 22 22 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. 38. 39. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 29.9 69.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 15.9% 11.7% 6.1% 1.3% 6.5% 4.5% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 5.4% 4.0% 2.0% 0.4% 2.2% 1.5% 2.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 30 36 43 48 52 54 55 56 58 59 61 62 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 29 35 42 47 51 53 54 55 57 58 60 61 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 25 31 38 43 47 49 50 51 53 54 56 57 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT