* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 20 22 24 28 31 34 37 40 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 2 5 10 8 15 8 15 11 21 19 27 26 26 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 2 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 1 -2 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 130 125 159 254 302 332 303 281 287 252 267 248 263 256 267 270 281 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.6 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 149 149 144 138 133 130 148 145 142 132 129 126 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 124 123 123 118 112 109 107 124 122 119 108 105 102 103 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 45 45 49 48 46 50 49 51 53 53 49 47 43 44 45 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -74 -60 -63 -61 -34 -22 8 -1 -13 -23 -25 -20 0 -22 -33 -57 200 MB DIV -1 31 47 23 13 55 14 39 16 34 2 9 -7 -1 -4 13 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -4 1 1 0 4 -2 0 0 1 3 5 LAND (KM) 872 828 785 741 690 589 526 486 535 652 857 944 1056 1090 1087 1060 1037 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.2 34.5 34.6 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.6 69.9 70.3 70.8 71.6 71.8 71.6 70.5 68.8 66.4 64.0 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 5 6 10 10 10 6 5 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 18 18 18 19 17 16 11 29 17 16 13 8 6 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 3. 9. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 15. 23. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. 35. 35. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 29.8 69.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 17.3% 11.9% 7.0% 1.8% 9.2% 5.4% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 6.0% 4.1% 2.3% 0.6% 3.1% 1.8% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT