* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 32 37 42 47 49 51 50 48 43 38 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 32 37 42 47 49 51 50 48 43 38 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 41 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 5 5 10 14 16 17 19 22 27 36 40 43 34 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 3 3 3 2 2 0 2 0 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 128 127 161 192 259 303 285 294 262 261 245 242 237 245 255 259 267 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 27.9 27.6 27.6 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.0 24.3 15.6 19.7 19.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 151 149 146 133 129 131 139 141 135 127 103 73 82 81 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 125 122 119 109 106 108 116 118 115 109 91 70 76 74 77 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 45 46 49 48 51 51 54 53 58 56 52 47 50 50 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -73 -79 -77 -64 -73 -64 -44 4 -8 -2 -24 -25 -44 -42 -44 -36 -20 200 MB DIV 0 1 27 49 28 15 45 36 24 27 2 29 14 2 -8 -5 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 1 3 8 4 9 3 4 0 2 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 894 823 766 723 681 589 525 538 650 622 610 619 545 496 856 1319 1735 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 30.6 31.2 31.7 32.0 32.7 33.7 34.8 36.0 37.1 38.5 40.0 41.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.9 69.2 69.4 69.5 69.8 70.4 70.5 69.9 68.1 65.8 62.5 58.5 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 4 4 5 5 8 10 13 16 18 20 22 23 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 18 17 11 11 13 26 29 25 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 26. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. -2. -7. -15. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 24. 26. 25. 23. 18. 13. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 29.9 68.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.9% 12.5% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.2% 5.5% 2.4% 0.6% 2.6% 2.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.5% 6.1% 4.0% 0.2% 0.9% 4.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 27 28 32 37 42 47 49 51 50 48 43 38 35 36 18HR AGO 25 24 24 26 27 31 36 41 46 48 50 49 47 42 37 34 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 28 33 38 43 45 47 46 44 39 34 31 32 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 25 30 35 37 39 38 36 31 26 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT