* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 54 58 61 61 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 54 58 61 61 62 63 63 63 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 28 31 35 40 46 52 57 61 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 14 13 9 7 3 3 11 7 12 15 15 22 20 28 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 1 2 6 2 3 -2 1 -3 0 -1 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 118 116 123 113 104 107 282 283 315 276 305 264 272 250 259 241 238 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 150 154 154 152 151 148 143 132 129 128 132 132 129 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 137 140 137 129 126 121 117 107 105 104 109 109 106 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 47 48 49 46 46 49 50 50 51 50 53 52 56 53 54 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -77 -72 -64 -79 -86 -78 -85 -77 -55 -22 -5 -16 -5 -11 -2 -9 16 200 MB DIV -7 7 -15 -13 -23 -12 26 27 20 30 29 35 28 2 18 -4 21 700-850 TADV 9 7 -1 -1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 605 709 787 832 912 938 823 737 658 580 540 546 602 733 836 887 932 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.8 25.8 26.7 27.7 29.5 30.6 31.4 31.8 32.5 33.0 33.6 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.7 64.9 66.0 67.0 67.9 68.7 69.2 69.6 70.3 70.7 70.8 70.3 69.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 13 13 12 7 5 3 4 3 3 4 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 21 26 29 26 21 19 17 16 12 12 11 16 20 12 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 17 CX,CY: -11/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 24. 29. 33. 36. 36. 38. 38. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 63.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.76 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.4% 10.5% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 13.9% 10.6% 8.7% 4.5% 8.0% 14.4% 20.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 10.4% 7.2% 5.6% 1.5% 2.7% 8.2% 6.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 54 58 61 61 62 63 63 63 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 33 40 47 52 56 59 59 60 61 61 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 30 37 44 49 53 56 56 57 58 58 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 23 30 37 42 46 49 49 50 51 51 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT