* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 33 40 46 52 57 61 62 64 63 64 66 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 29 33 40 46 52 57 61 62 64 63 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 29 33 39 45 52 58 62 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 12 14 14 14 6 1 7 4 12 5 15 15 25 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 5 2 4 2 2 -2 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 183 122 113 119 111 107 153 67 296 344 298 273 284 262 277 271 289 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 149 150 153 159 152 149 149 147 143 137 137 137 130 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 140 139 140 141 130 124 123 120 116 111 111 112 107 112 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 47 49 50 53 51 54 50 54 54 56 55 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -56 -66 -68 -80 -74 -86 -68 -70 -48 -47 -24 -27 -36 -33 -28 -27 200 MB DIV -18 -2 1 -13 -13 13 -1 42 14 42 5 36 2 28 0 20 -3 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 0 -2 2 0 0 -1 0 -5 0 -4 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 459 462 525 605 641 825 920 790 724 631 579 511 503 515 596 700 840 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.1 27.1 28.6 29.7 30.1 30.6 31.0 31.6 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.8 64.2 65.5 66.6 67.7 69.2 70.0 70.6 71.1 71.9 72.2 72.5 72.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 5 4 3 2 3 2 5 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 61 35 28 40 29 20 18 20 21 20 18 18 18 11 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 15. 21. 27. 32. 36. 37. 39. 38. 39. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.4 62.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 16.9% 12.4% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 10.9% 7.0% 5.6% 3.0% 8.2% 9.9% 31.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 3.1% 10.0% 6.5% 5.2% 1.0% 2.8% 6.6% 10.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 27 29 33 40 46 52 57 61 62 64 63 64 66 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 32 39 45 51 56 60 61 63 62 63 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 28 35 41 47 52 56 57 59 58 59 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 21 28 34 40 45 49 50 52 51 52 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT