* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 42 46 51 56 61 65 68 70 71 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 42 46 51 56 61 65 68 70 71 74 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 38 39 41 43 46 50 55 60 65 70 75 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 6 3 10 15 13 4 7 6 9 6 2 10 8 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 -1 -1 -2 -4 0 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 212 214 208 118 105 96 107 101 32 351 8 336 7 283 245 260 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 149 147 149 153 152 151 149 150 150 145 141 136 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 139 141 138 136 135 129 125 123 123 122 118 115 113 112 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 46 47 46 47 50 52 51 53 50 54 55 57 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -27 -42 -60 -67 -84 -75 -76 -59 -55 -42 -50 -42 -43 -30 -21 -14 200 MB DIV -2 -14 -2 12 5 -26 -2 -5 45 4 21 9 35 12 23 17 22 700-850 TADV 9 6 0 4 6 1 4 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 662 574 503 496 550 679 817 947 891 821 743 684 615 589 601 678 761 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.3 25.1 26.9 28.2 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.2 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.8 62.2 63.5 64.7 66.8 68.3 69.2 69.8 70.5 71.2 71.6 71.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 14 12 10 6 4 4 3 3 3 4 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 30 34 48 33 29 27 21 20 19 20 22 21 19 15 12 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 40. 41. 44. 46. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.8 59.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.8% 12.9% 10.0% 8.8% 10.8% 11.1% 19.5% Logistic: 3.7% 12.8% 7.5% 3.2% 1.3% 6.6% 13.8% 19.6% Bayesian: 1.1% 12.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 14.3% 7.6% 4.5% 3.4% 6.0% 8.4% 13.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 42 46 51 56 61 65 68 70 71 74 76 78 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 39 43 48 53 58 62 65 67 68 71 73 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 34 38 43 48 53 57 60 62 63 66 68 70 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 25 29 34 39 44 48 51 53 54 57 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT