* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 50 56 60 64 67 71 73 76 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 50 56 60 64 67 71 73 76 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 32 34 38 42 48 54 61 68 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 10 7 4 12 14 11 6 4 11 3 7 5 8 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 3 5 1 2 -2 1 -4 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 226 226 217 218 148 115 102 120 11 51 340 11 321 267 316 260 323 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 144 146 147 150 154 158 153 149 150 148 147 142 138 134 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 138 140 140 140 139 137 130 123 123 120 119 116 114 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 48 48 50 51 51 50 52 53 55 55 55 57 55 56 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 3 2 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 0 -6 -23 -42 -58 -89 -68 -61 -57 -48 -57 -47 -54 -44 -45 -44 200 MB DIV -1 -2 -4 -12 0 -23 -25 0 25 8 2 9 9 2 -4 -8 6 700-850 TADV 10 9 2 -2 4 0 3 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 718 581 475 396 407 558 669 843 904 802 728 676 625 570 524 550 588 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.8 23.7 25.6 27.3 28.5 29.4 29.9 30.3 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 60.3 61.6 63.0 64.3 66.6 68.6 69.7 70.4 70.8 71.3 71.6 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 15 15 14 12 8 6 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 38 34 39 49 32 34 29 22 19 21 21 21 20 18 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 15. 20. 25. 31. 35. 39. 42. 46. 48. 51. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 58.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.7% 12.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 11.3% 6.9% 2.4% 0.9% 6.0% 13.5% 17.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.0% 11.3% 7.0% 4.1% 0.3% 2.1% 8.3% 5.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 50 56 60 64 67 71 73 76 78 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 30 34 38 43 48 54 58 62 65 69 71 74 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 25 29 33 38 43 49 53 57 60 64 66 69 71 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 42 46 50 53 57 59 62 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT