* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942020 08/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 45 49 54 58 62 64 69 71 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 45 49 54 58 62 64 69 71 75 76 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 41 46 52 58 65 71 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 11 7 8 13 14 3 7 6 7 6 3 10 3 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 218 227 225 215 218 124 104 110 152 39 321 356 307 284 281 308 293 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 144 146 146 147 151 155 150 148 147 146 145 142 139 135 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 139 140 140 138 140 138 128 124 120 119 117 116 113 110 106 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 49 49 50 52 50 50 53 54 52 55 54 58 55 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 29 12 0 -7 -25 -55 -80 -76 -72 -58 -62 -45 -47 -39 -47 -33 -39 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -3 -5 -15 4 -29 9 2 42 9 29 -1 39 -19 20 1 700-850 TADV 5 10 9 2 -2 7 0 3 1 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 844 687 565 465 398 489 603 779 937 814 745 678 640 582 541 540 608 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.0 22.9 24.8 26.7 28.2 29.4 30.0 30.6 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.7 59.2 60.5 61.8 63.2 65.8 67.9 69.4 70.2 70.6 70.9 71.2 71.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 15 14 13 10 7 5 3 3 2 4 4 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 46 29 28 35 38 37 30 22 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. 35. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 13. 16. 20. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. 44. 46. 50. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 57.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.9% 13.7% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 16.7% 10.9% 4.2% 1.5% 9.3% 17.6% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 9.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% Consensus: 4.0% 14.9% 9.1% 4.9% 0.5% 3.3% 10.1% 7.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942020 INVEST 08/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942020 INVEST 08/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 31 33 38 41 45 49 54 58 62 64 69 71 75 76 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 35 38 42 46 51 55 59 61 66 68 72 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 34 38 42 47 51 55 57 62 64 68 69 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 25 29 33 38 42 46 48 53 55 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT